I love using AI and see the benefits every day in my day-to-day work to make my job easier, but not always uncritically, so I have to debug code more often, but it's nicely formatted and documented right away. But generative AI is a danger.
Why do I say that? You have to understand the difference, because ChatGPT is a text generator and its capabilities are limited, but it has its specialization, but generative AI is not a specialization, it is an AI that has no specialization and can be applied to all things. Already any entrepreneur who knows how what words they need is able to build an imaginary team through AI that will do the work for them in marketing, HR, resume, data sorting, hashtag generation, even code for structure, diagrams and flows. All of these are subtasks performed by humans. But these can be supported by an AI, i.e. not yet replaced, but it is sufficient that you no longer have to hire anyone for these tasks.
And now we come to the problem of generative AI, an AI that, due to the amount of data and its capabilities, is nothing close to an emotionless and logical thinking workforce.
People job loss
I have friends in Africa who work with earn money with so-called microjobs, (Partly up to over 100€ per task) because there, depending on the country, the economy is not good, and companies thus create up to 100,000 jobsThe wages are not enough to live on and it is cheaper for the developed world to outsource these tasks to Africa and for the people in Africa, these micro jobs are partly better paid than the local job in Africa.
And now comes generative AI and it has access to current knowledge and so can perform these tasks within seconds to minutes. Why still spend money on a qualitatively changeable workforce and unreliable person?
Economically, AI may be a blessing for many, you save labor that you have to pay and have a stable quality. But the many jobs in the digital field that are done by humans today, can generative AI then do and then? Keep people, who cause wage costs, have sick days, vacation days and claims on them? That's where an AI would be better! Or?
Hire or outsource labor?
It is already the case today in the service sector that, for example, in cleaning, which I can see very well because my family runs a cleaning company, doctors, offices and industry, companies, and even private vacation home operators, prefer to hire us as a company to take care of the object instead of hiring a person who can get sick, has spontaneous absences, for example due to doctor's appointments, or takes vacation when they are needed. Here you can see how work is outsourced for the sake of convenience. And you pay for it, instead of hiring someone, you hire a company to take care of it, which you can then claim as a business expense at the tax office, at least in Germany.
What will that look like with AI? Already today, repetitive messages such as weather or sports events can be produced by AI, you just need the data such as players, time, and goals that were scored.
A generative AI, which has access to daily news, news feeds, Twitter, etc., can process data that no journalist could handle, the AI then becomes the truth, because whether by then the sources function comes as proof is open and predict logical developments is already possible, so why not write articles?
The same applies to marketing, already with ChatGPT I can plan advertising campaigns step by step and even tells how much budget I should set, which target groups and I get an explanation why just target group is an advertising relevant group. Without having to study or take courses.
So many jobs that can be done digitally can also be replaced by generative AI, and thus a human.
Where does this lead?
I see a dangerous development here, because already today ChatGPT and other services that use the OpenAI API are used to streamline. And I count myself among them, I have blog posts created with it and thus save myself cash, which is always hard to earn at the beginning of websites. The problem is that it reduces the need for human labor and saves money, and economically it leaves more money for the entrepreneur.
Social systems are not prepared
I think there will be a bombshell here, because many are still resting on the fact that they are not replaceable, or Seek more work-life balance, more of that and more of that, work less, get more money etc. These are the demands of the younger generation, which has forgotten what performance means. And getting money for nothing? That's not possible, because in Germany that would be the death knell for the social system, When large sections of people lose their jobs and thus tax revenues are lost and these people are then also stuck in the welfare system, why also work, you can blame the circumstances on the AI, but does not solve the problem.
Consequently, it will cost jobs and argue, that new jobs will be created, no, that's just not going to happenWe're talking about jobs that are highly specialized, that are for AI, AI ethicists, AI security experts, etc., highly skilled jobs that you probably have to have a professorship or a master's degree to even know what you're doing. So how can you presume to tell a copywriter, a graphic designer, or even service workers, that they should retrain.
Recently, I saw a service robot in a local Chinese restaurant, which is usually only known from China, even Happy Birthday 🎂 he has on it. For 18,000 €, that is also the least.
The education system is not prepared
How then are waiters supposed to saddle up to AI? So retrain? Not even in schools about AI is taught to children, since in many countries, a Knowledge image between 2000 and 2010 (personal experience) is conveyed, the current development is not shown in any school or explained to the coming generation, who could have a problem in the future with a competitor, who must be taken seriously as an opponent.
Consequently, we're going to run into a problem that we're not prepared for. I'm the last person to reject development, but critically, just because something is incredibly practical doesn't mean it's good, for example, online dating is wellbut causes other problems, in the end every development has advantages and also disadvantages, which are usually not immediately apparent and then it is too late.
AI specialization is okay, it's useful, reduces workload and thus creates more time for tasks that you can devote more time to at work, but when AIs evolve and become generative AIs, that's a problem, because humans are creatures that strive to live comfortably, work less, get more out of life.
Impact on an unprepared generation
But this is too short-sighted, because we are resting on the one of our generation, what about the following ones? Already today we can see what happens to young people when both parents have to go to workbecause a single earner in the household no longer earns enough to support a family. I leave the topic of gender distribution out of this. Consequently, the upbringing then also suffers here and this generation makes demands, has Difficulties with disciplineThey can't subordinate themselves, think they know a lot of things better without ever having worked at all. As a teenager to rebel, there is in every generation, there is nothing wrong and is part of puberty, will not change, but certain behavior patterns are conspicuous.
And this generation meets an AI as an opponent in the economy, because with the behavior of some younger members of society and the excessive demands, why should I as an entrepreneur now hire this person? I'd rather use an AI.
If we look into the future, the convenience of people would make generative AI a problem. Because the digital area would be taken over by generative AIs. Of course now you could laugh at such a thought, because HTML code you get today is nowhere near enough to build a usable website and let alone backend logic code that an inexperienced person can implement this, risking the website being hacked. But is it really that unrealistic? Just 20 years ago we were still using floppy discs, and today many laptops already don't have a CD/DVD/Blu-ray drive. Were there actually laptops with Blu-ray drives? At least you can see from this example how quickly technology can evolve and also be superseded. So is it that unlikely that in a few years AI will take over digital industries? Recently, an article was published where a company used an AI as CEO and managed to make big profits on the stock market.
If these industries are now taken over, digital work will be done by fewer and fewer, and more and more people will have to do manual work to earn a living, called crafts. Could craftsmanship as an industry become so popular? I doubt that then again, because just because the need is, this is not covered for a long time, see the example of building cleaning, where there is great need, but due to the social system, it does not pay to go to work, why even if you get a little less money, but do not have to physically break.
The future of uncertainty
What happens now, if the occupational pyramid that keeps our society running is led at the top by AIs, will we humans then become the plaything? If now already GPT-4 manages to get 75% on exams in the U.S., students average 65%, in Austria has ChatGPT (3.5 probably) passed the Central Matura examwho says that the next version will not come even further? What value do exams still have then? Why do we still go to school at all if we are taught outdated knowledge that is no longer practical in the current economy? So why make an effort in school and have a goal when AI already takes care of everything there?
We are getting closer and closer to the question: do we humans still need anything at all? We are facing a crisis of our civilization, because without goals and challenges, there is no incentive to create anything, but if you have AI that does everything, where does that lead? Elon Musk already warns that AI is more dangerous than a nuclear bomb, whether his neuralink is the better solution there? I doubt it, but I can imagine that it would help.
What does it mean to be human if there is no reason to do anything? When there is no challenge to achieve something? Who needs a human being anymore? Does human existence become superfluous when an artificial intelligence has taken over the work of humans and humans find no place in a perfect world? Universum 25 shows what happens in a utopia when humans are taken care of. Universe 25 - Silent Mass - DER SPIEGEL 19/1971 / Density stress in a mouse cage - NZZ 21.06.2016
Lethargy as Utopia?
If AI takes us to utopia, do we need humans at all? And who will decide anything then? The lethargy enters, powerlessness, one can change nothing more, because if that was reached, then the people will have lost the strength to reject what they have and take it as given, why also change something, if one gets money without having to work and an AI decides how the world goes on then? Maybe not in 10 years, but who knows how it can be in 50 or 100 years?
And my conclusion?
Generative AI is becoming a problem, and faster than we would like. We forget that sci-fi was still the future in the 2000s, but it is exactly this future that is reaching us now and we have to deal with the coming problems. It is probably incumbent on human evolution not to perceive creeping developments, since the human brain is trimmed to the current danger and defense against it.
Consequently, I have decided to draft a lex with ChatGPT that prohibits or at least restricts the use of generative AIs. It is ultimately not legally binding, but is meant to be thought-provoking and act as a guideline to prevent the damage that would come to humanity if we do not deal with it.
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Here it goes to the Lex Kirpeit/AI2023