This morning I read about an interesting development, and that is that Vladimir Putin's private army Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has taken the Russian city of Rostov. In this article, I analyze the next steps.
One thing you have to hand it to Prigozhin, he doesn't tell long stories and takes action, but how did it come to this that now within Russia a private army wants to fight its way all the way to Moscow?
In recent months, there have been recurring reports that Prigozhin has been attacking the Kremlin as well as the Defense Minister and the inadequate replenishment supply criticized, and that because of this situation it is for him is not economical to continue to fight, as the losses of his men were too great.
Yesterday, in a video message from him, there was the demand, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov get their hands on to end "the disgrace."
Since this morning tanks of the Wagner Group are rolling through Russia, a private army, which can be rented by governments to carry out covert operations abroad, for which one does not want to have attention, so far so clear. But that now such a private army drives into the own country and a city is quasi under complete control, so the headquarters of the Russian army for the south of the country in Rostov, police, administration and airfield were taken over and accordingly these institutions are incapable of acting.
Citizens were not attacked so far according to my latest information, it therefore shows the character of a hostage situation. Prigozhin wants revenge for the alleged attack on his men by Russian soldiers on the direct orders of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, so the city serves only the purpose of the hostage.
From a military-strategic point of view, this is not stupid, because Russia's military resources will probably be concentrated to a large extent in the Ukrainian war, leaving only a skeleton crew at home in Russia, so my guess, otherwise I cannot explain such rapid progress on the part of the Wagner Group.
According to the latest information, citizens should avoid the M-4 highway towards Moscow, as there is a dangerous military convoy there.
Due to the inaccurate and not up-to-date information, it can be assumed that under military convoy there are several tanks and armored combat vehicles. From Rostov to Moscow it takes 10 hours at normal speed according to Google Maps. But since the vehicles have decent consumption, I assume that with refueling us speed of tanks, I assume from 36-48 hours that Prigozhin will reach the Russian capital Moscow. The city of Voronezh, with a population of almost 900,000, should also already have under control of the Wagner Group stand.
The fact that Prigozhin is serious is also shown by a downed russian helicopterwhich were probably shot down by the Wagner Group.
It is a development that I did not see coming and already thought that it would make more sense for Ukraine to capitulate, due to declining NATO ammunition stocks.
Well, you can be wrong so quickly when factors come into play that turn the tide.
Of course, I don't know Moscow's defense structure now, but I suspect that they will protect the city with a 3-tier defense wall, so that Prigozhin won't be able to get in easily. And will always meet military resistance at strategic points.
But what will happen in Moscow?
I don't think you can say that until you know exactly whether Prigozhin is going to get in there. Militarily, they won't have many resources, and paramilitary action will probably fail because the weapons are in Ukraine. Consequently, there is not much that can be done there, at least that is my guess.
A possible reaction of the West would be to watch and see now how much weapons the Kremlin still has in stock. Because in such a national emergency situation, where the military no longer has to worry about an attack to hold the front to Ukraine, but an attack takes place in the interior of the country, this attack must be stopped quickly, so all militarily closer resources would have to be involved.
Definitely it would be wrong, if Europe would support Ukraine, when Ukraine then invades Russia, because the military has to take care of Wagner group. It would be the fatal signal that Russian citizens see confirmed the propaganda that the West is the bad guy.
What do you think? Will Prigozhin make it to Moscow? Will civil war break out in Moscow?