Yesterday - more out of boredom than anything else - I once again got to grips with data visualization and AI models. It was actually just a test run: a few data sets on the birth rate in Europe, a bit of code, a few maps and diagrams. But the deeper I delved, the more sobering the picture became.
Europe is dying (Global fertility rate 2023). Not through war, disease, climate change or natural disaster - but quietly, insidiously, self-inflicted. It is the gentle demise of a civilization that is dismantling itself by no longer wanting to ensure its own continued existence.
What I saw today was no surprise. Many of the trends have been known for years. And yet I was struck by the cold clarity of the figures. No political euphemism, no well-meaning family policy seems to be able to stop this course.
This text is not a scientific report. It is an attempt to make the unspeakable tangible: That an entire culture is being quietly phased out - and hardly anyone is really looking.
The birth rate: Europe's implosion in figures
Interactive map (click to open)
Here is the Link to the interactive map
To make the data easier to understand for the map visualization, I have divided the birth rates into three simplified categories. This categorization should help to take a differentiated view of the topic - and not paint a purely black-and-white picture. Because as dramatic as the figures are, there are certainly differences between moderate shrinkage and genuine demographic collapse.
The so-called Total fertility rate (TFR) - i.e. the average number of children per woman - is in almost all European countries below the conservation level of 2.1. Without structural changes and political measures, these societies will shrink - slowly but irreversibly.
| Category | TFR range | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Near stability | ≥ 1,70 | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇷🇴 Romania, 🇮🇸 Iceland, 🇬🇪 Georgia |
| ⚠️ Slight shrinkage | 1,45 - 1,69 | 🇫🇷 France, 🇬🇧 United Kingdom, 🇨🇿 Czech Republic |
| 🔴 Demographic catastrophe | < 1,45 | 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇵🇹 Portugal |
This simplified categorization served as the basis for the map visualization that can be seen later in this article. It clearly shows which countries are particularly at risk - and where there is still hope.
Society dies in the mind first
In Southern Europe and Eastern Europe in particular, decay is already a reality - regions are depopulating, pension systems are faltering, young people are emigrating. The European continent is increasingly turning into a geriatric ward with a loss of cultural memory. But before the demographic implosion becomes visible in statistics, the real decline begins much earlier: in people's minds.
What we are seeing is no coincidence, but the result of a profound, decades-long change in values:
Children are no longer seen as the meaning of life, but as a burden
Where children used to be seen as the natural goal of a life - as enrichment, a source of meaning, a source of hope - today a sober cost-benefit calculation often prevails. Children are "not worth it", they cost time, freedom and money. In many urban milieus, they are seen as an obstacle to self-realization. The result: postponed or completely abandoned family planning.
Family becomes an option - not an obligation
What was once considered the foundation of every society is now one of many life options. Family is no longer a social consensus, but a lifestyle. Politically, the traditional image of the family has also been called into question in recent years (Multi-parenthood - 4 parents for 1 child, WELT.de). The role of parent competes with many other identities - with the result that many people never take the step or only decide to do so late, when their biological time is almost up.
Career, individualism and self-realization dominate thinking
The western world has shifted the narrative: It is no longer the collective that counts, but the individual. "You have to find yourself", "Live your best life" - these messages dominate the media and education. However, in a society in which everyone only fulfils themselves, there is soon no one to look after others - children, the elderly, the sick. The price of boundless individualism is social disintegration. Even the Fear of climate change is one reasonthat young women don't want children.
Ageing is trivialized as a "challenge" - but it is a socio-economic time bomb
Politicians like to talk about "demographic challenge". That sounds solvable - as if a reform law or a digitalization push would be enough. But the reality is more radical: if two working people have to support one pensioner, the system collapses. When entire districts age, it's not just the economy that dies - cultural life dies too. What remains is administration instead of vitality.
A civilization that abolishes itself?
Europe is not an isolated case - but it is at the center of demographic erosion. No other continent is experiencing such a widespread, sustained and profound decline in its fertile population as Europe. Almost all countries are below the maintenance level of 2.1 children per woman - many of them significantly so.
Whether in Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland or Portugal, the reality is the same everywhere. The birth rate is often between 1.2 and 1.5which in the long term leads to a Population decline of 30 % or more unless there is massive and effective immigration. But even this cannot compensate for the biological decline not stop it, but at most delay it.
The countries are facing the same challenges - ageing societies, stagnating economic power and a growing social imbalance.
What is happening in Europe is not an isolated phenomenon, but part of a global trends in developed countries. Fertility rates in East Asia - for example in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - are now even lower in some cases. However, Europe's cultural self-denial and simultaneous political passivity mean that it is at a disadvantage. particularly exposed before the question:
How long can a civilization exist if it no longer wants to reproduce itself?
What does that mean for us?
In just 20 years - i.e. by 2045 - many of these countries will:
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lose 10-30 % of their population, provided there is no massive immigration
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one Reach an average age of 47+ years (source: IMF, PDF Backup)
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lose their economic dynamismas there is a shortage of young workers and pension burdens are exploding
What began in Europe as a "demographic winter" is spreading like a cold wave across the continent. large parts of the world - especially in highly developed regions with urban lifestyles, a high level of education and individualistic values.
It is not war, not disease, not climate change that is wiping out these societies - but a quiet, voluntary withdrawal from the future.
Migration as a solution? Or as the last illusion?
The political response to the demographic collapse is almost reflexive: Immigration. We should simply "close gaps", "support the social systems" and "keep the labor market stable" - by bringing in people from outside. But if you take a closer look, you realize that this is not a solution, but a Symptom treatment - with side effects.
Immigration can alleviate the shortage of skilled workers in the short term, yes. But it does not cure the causebut only delays the inevitable - like a painkiller for organ failure.
Because the side effects have long been noticeable:
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Social tensions on the riseespecially in urban agglomerations, where parallel societies are emerging.
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The cultural homogeneitywhich held the social fabric together like an invisible glue, is dissolving
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Identity becomes a memorynot a lived reality. What was once European culture becomes an anecdote in history books.
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And last but not least: Many immigrants come from culturally distant countries with different value systems and moral concepts - They too do not bring about a future in the interests of local society, but lead to the development of parallel societies (Source, Source, Source). In addition, immigration from the Middle East and North Africa is leading to a parallel society which, due to higher birth rates (detailed explanation of Muslim demographics), mathematically leads to the slow extinction of the local society within the next decades.
The actual solution? Inconvenient, but necessary.
What Europe needs is not a flood of people from outside, but A return to what made it specialFamily, children, responsibility, tradition. Not as political dogma, but as Cultural mission.
It needs:
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More children per family - at least three children per familynot out of compulsion, but out of conviction
However, more and more Women no children, (mdr.de, psychology-today.com) -
A new appreciation for the The role of women as mothers and bearers of society
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A More conservative attitude towards the future - not backward-looking, but preserving
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A Clear limitation of migration-induced birth explosionsif they permanently prevent integration (Fertility rate in Germany by nationality)
The question is uncomfortable, but necessary:
Is cultural self-preservation discrimination - or self-preservation?
Skills shortage - a myth in reality?
The idea that migration automatically brings skilled workers is naive. Those with know-how, education and entrepreneurial spirit migrate not in high-tax countries with crumbling security, administrative chaos and identity crisis. Genuinely skilled workers are increasingly avoiding Europe - while uneducated groups with poor integration skills dominate, costing more than they can contribute.
Result: No upswingbut Remaining in a state of emergency. And every political discussion about it is reflexively morally poisoned, although it has long been about the Survival of social stability goes.
Companies with an expiration date
What we are currently experiencing is not a sudden collapse, but a civilizational suicide in slow motion. The Western world - once a pioneer of enlightenment, science and progress - today refuses to follow the simplest biological imperative: reproduction. Not out of necessity or external constraints, but out of a mixture of convenience, disorientation and cultural self-abandonment.
Rome, Athens, Berlin, Paris - once beacons of human civilization - are degenerating into museum remnantswhich only celebrate their greatness in commemorative plaques and tourist brochures. The past is admired, the present is managed, the future is slept through.
Conclusion: Europe needs a rethink - or it will cease to exist
If Europe wants to have a future, it needs more than technocratic strategy papers or symbolic programs. It needs a cultural awakening - or at least an awakening.
It needs:
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A real family offensivethat not only talks about compatibility, but also makes having children something positive and desirable again.
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A new appreciation for parenthood - as a lifetime achievement, not as a career brake.
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An honest debate on the limits of migrationabout quality instead of quantity, about integration instead of pure immigration.
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And above all: Courage for the future. Courage to take responsibility. Courage to believe in tomorrow again.
Because one thing is certain:
Without children - no future.
Without a future - no Europe.
Read on to find out more:
Joi AI: Seduction by technology and the silent death of real relationships
Europe is becoming irrelevant - New superpowers are already waiting
More and more men want to be single, 80/20 rule ... and I understand it
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